Annual net outmigration from Massachusetts has soared by a stunning 1,100 percent to 39,000 people since 2013, according to a new Boston University study. If the trend continues, the researchers found, the state’s net outmigration could reach 96,000 by 2030.
Outmigration cost Massachusetts $4.3 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI) and $213.7 million in tax revenue during the 2020-21 tax year. The majority of that money went to Florida ($1.77 billion), New Hampshire ($1.1 billion), and Maine ($393 million.) Those numbers could rise to $19.2 billion in AGI and $961 million in tax revenue by 2030.
“To make matters worse, those who are leaving tend to be younger and earn more than state averages,” said Professor Mark Williams of Boston University’s Questrom School of Business, the primary researcher of the study. “These are the people the Commonwealth needs for its future workforce.”
The age group leaving in the largest numbers is 26-34, although most of the lost AGI comes from the departures of those aged 55-64. More than half of people who leave Massachusetts earn close to double the state average per year.
Income tax, housing costs, and costs of health care are the largest drivers of outmigration, according to the study. The 11 states to which Massachusetts lost the bulk of its departing residents all scored better in those categories. Eight of the 11 states scored better in housing burden (the proportion of household income allocated to housing costs).
“This isn’t just retirees leaving Massachusetts for warmer weather,” Professor Williams said. “Over half the residents who leave stay in New England.” The top five destination states are Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas.
View the full study here.
