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        The Right Amount of Cards, Cash and ID to Carry in Your Wallet

        Inside the Push to Make Everyone Friends at Work

        How do sustainable supply chains improve the continuity of supply and protect the environment?

        How do sustainable supply chains improve the continuity of supply and protect the environment?

        3 Ways Boston University’s Online MBA Is A Disruptor In Business Education

        New Immigration Data Point To Larger U.S. Workforce Issues

        A Risk Management Nightmare at Silicon Valley Bank

        How CFOs are navigating the debt ceiling standoff

        Opposing scientists find no clear evidence for gender bias in academic science

        Opposing scientists find no clear evidence for gender bias in academic science

        Benefits of Supply Chain Visibility

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        The Right Amount of Cards, Cash and ID to Carry in Your Wallet

        Why Employees Hate Hot-Desking

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        Loneliness is at epidemic proportions in modern organizations. Questrom expert tells how to address it

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        Demotivating Effects of Relative Performance Feedback on Middle-Ranked Workers’ Performance

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        S1:E1 CVS Paying the “Pink Tax” on Certain Products and the Evolution of the Electric Vehicle Industry

        AI: What is it and how will it impact business?

        Is Creativity in Advertising Dead in the age of AI?

        Is Creativity in Advertising Dead in the age of AI?

        How Higher Ed Can Contend with Learning Platforms

        How Higher Ed Can Contend with Learning Platforms

        How Companies Deal with Disruption

        How Companies Deal with Disruption

        Money: It’s created. It’s destroyed. But what is it?

        Money: It’s created. It’s destroyed. But what is it?

        Blockchain, Beyond Crypto

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        S1:E1 CVS Paying the “Pink Tax” on Certain Products and the Evolution of the Electric Vehicle Industry

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        Here’s Why Experts Say Russia and China’s Attempts to ‘De-Dollarize’ Global Markets are Going Nowhere

        5 ways Russia’s been sidestepping Western sanctions and keeping its economy alive, from switching to the Chinese yuan and dabbling in ghost trades

        3 Ways Boston University’s Online MBA Is A Disruptor In Business Education

        New Immigration Data Point To Larger U.S. Workforce Issues

        A Risk Management Nightmare at Silicon Valley Bank

        How CFOs are navigating the debt ceiling standoff

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        Questrom marketing researcher explores the data-tracking debate

        Ownership in AI: Who is responsible for the benefits and downsides of AI’s output?

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          Will Generative AI Create a New Era of Search Competition?

          A Better Approach to Customer-Centric Messaging and Engagement

          A Better Approach to Customer-Centric Messaging and Engagement

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          How Coworking Spaces Impact Employee Well-Being

          Will Salary Transparency Laws Change Employee Compensation?

          Will Salary Transparency Laws Change Employee Compensation?

          Heroes from Above But Not (Always) from Within? Gig workers’ reactions to the sudden public moralization of their work

          Heroes from Above But Not (Always) from Within? Gig workers’ reactions to the sudden public moralization of their work

          To Encourage Patients to Fill Prescriptions, Fix Copays

          To Encourage Patients to Fill Prescriptions, Fix Copays

          Is Tesla’s Era of Dominance Coming to an End? What Experts Say

          Is Tesla’s Era of Dominance Coming to an End? What Experts Say

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          ESG Investing Isn’t Designed to Save the Planet

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          Insights@Questrom
          Home Our Insights Business Challenges Health, Biopharma, & Health-Tech

          Excess Deaths in 2020

          byVidit Munshi
          January 2, 2021
          in Health, Biopharma, & Health-Tech
          16
          A A
          Excess Deaths in 2020

          A new study suggests that up to a third of “excess deaths” in 2020 may not be attributable directly to COVID, but to healthcare disruptions resulting from the resources needed to address the pandemic. What is the lasting impact of this change in health spending and prioritization? How can patients and providers effectively protect the public from non-COVID risk factors that have not gone away? Vidit Munshi, BU Questrom Lecturer of Markets, Public Policy & Law, examines the data.

          A recent study from experts at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine and Yale School of Public Health reported that two-thirds of the excess deaths that occurred this summer in the United States were directly related to COVID-19.  What is more difficult to figure out are the causes of the one-third (nearly 75,000) excess deaths that were not directly attributable to the virus.  The authors suggest some potential explanations for these excess deaths:  Increased mortality from heart disease and dementia, inability to get appropriate care for acute conditions, and potentially delayed reporting of COVID-19 deaths. They also discuss long-term impacts such as delayed chemotherapy and diabetes treatment and delayed screening exams.

          Accurately measuring indirect and long-term impacts can be tricky because we don’t know specifically what to look for.  With COVID-19, there are many facets to think about.  The negative impact of the pandemic on mental health has been well-established.  What about impacts from changes in diet and exercise?  Lifestyles have become more sedentary and will continue to do so into the winter months. This is particularly true of younger populations where the risks of obesity and long-term consequences are higher.  What impact will this have on the onset of conditions that are associated with decreased exercise and changes in nutrition?  Finally, what is the extent to which people have been willing to put up with conditions that, undetected or untreated, will lead to worse downstream consequences?

          Current modeling efforts related to COVID-19 have rightfully focused mostly on estimating the spread of the disease and the effectiveness of mitigation and vaccination strategies.  However, we will soon want to answer some important questions about the overall impact of the pandemic.  These models will have to consider direct and indirect effects that were sustained over the majority of 2020. However, they will also have to estimate the impact of health and economic consequences, the timing and magnitude of which are uncertain, that we will face in the coming years and perhaps, decades.  Simulation models are well-equipped to do this task by allowing for the synthesis of data from numerous sources. With small amounts of data to inform the models, we can make assumptions about how widespread certain behaviors were and what they will mean for future health outcomes.  For example, what proportion of the population will suffer from health consequences as a result of the sedentary lifestyle required by stay-at-home orders and work-from-home?  What are those consequences and how long will they last?  Simulations can test across distributions for each of these parameters and allow for an understanding of a range of impacts we are likely to expect.

          Another aspect of modeling often utilized in health care is the adjustment for quality of life (QoL).  Many studies report health effects of interventions in terms of gained QALYs (Quality-adjusted life years).  Surveys conducted during the pandemic will likely reveal loss of quality-of-life associated with the pandemic and potential health consequences downstream. However, there are limitations of QALYs to consider.  It is difficult to determine exactly who to survey to get the best estimate for the quality of life associated with a condition. For example, people who have a limb amputation quickly report quality of life closer to normal as they have adjusted to life with their new condition, compared to healthy individuals speculating on what they expect the quality of life to be under the same condition hypothetically.  However, QALYs can be helpful is assessing potentially detrimental effects of a situation that may not have an obvious health impact.  Many during this pandemic might simply say “life has just been really tough this year” even though they are healthy, employed, and safe at home.  Should we be capturing this sentiment as an effect of the pandemic? Can this potentially give us a more accurate understanding of the overall impact of this virus?

          The indirect and long-term consequences of COVID-19 are complicated.  They are affecting us in many ways, from a health standpoint to an economic standpoint.  Understanding these impacts will become increasingly important as we get out of the pandemic so we can be better prepared for the potential downstream health-related consequences of the pandemic and better understand what kind of mitigation strategies our health systems are likely to need to combat the down-stream consequences of COVID-19.

          Tags: COVID-19Vidit Munshi
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          Vidit Munshi

          Vidit Munshi

          Lecturer, Markets, Public Policy & Law

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