In San Francisco, where old meets new in the city’s eclectic mix of transit options, Dave Epstein discusses his experience in a Waymo robotaxi, and what the future holds for driverless cars:
Getting off BART at Powell in San Francisco, we entered a mix of new and old transit. The clang of cable car bells as we emerged from the new subway cars and dodged the historic hard-seated trolley cars on Market Street, made the normal parade of gridlocked cars fit right in with this decidedly confused set of transportation choices. But as we huffed and puffed our way up Mason Street, we couldn’t help but rubberneck as cars without drivers frequently passed us. They seemed to be nearly as common as the ubiquitous Uber and Lyft cars, and more common than old-school taxis. My colleague and I were determined to take one after our meeting at the Fairmont at the top of Nob Hill.
Waymo was the most common robotaxi we saw, so we signed up and ordered a pickup as we left the hotel, like the familiar summoning of an Uber. Anticipating a thrill, we watched it navigate the streets on our app as it approached and pulled up—an all-electric, luxury Jaguar I-PACE. We fumbled around with the app after trying the locked door handle, long enough for the Fairmont steward to take pity on us, cross the street, and point out the button to push on the app to unlock the doors.
Settling into leather seating in a way more (no Waymo pun intended) clean and comfortable car than any taxi or Uber, we noticed a cab driver giving us a dirty look, deservedly so. He probably recognizes that human taxi and ride-share drivers may be an endangered species in the medium-term future. We were ready for the thrill of being literally transported into the future!
A voice comes on to tell us to buckle up, the blinker goes on, and off we go—not unlike getting on BART if it had plush seats and a seat belt. No fanfare.
A strange feeling then came over me. Even with the straight up and down hills of San Francisco, traffic lights, and crazy drivers, it was truly unremarkable. You can imagine an invisible driver just doing her job. She drove skillfully, and other than one excursion we made into the parking lane when we were in stopped traffic—causing us to stand still with our blinker on, waiting to get back into the driving lane as human drivers scoffed at our apparent audacity to believe they should yield—we made it to our destination safely and on time. No horns, no yelling, no anxiety, and somewhat disappointingly, no extra thrill. As much as we marveled at the amazing technology, unimaginable a decade before, it got us to our destination autonomously and (may I anthropomorphize?) with calm professionalism. A bonus: No tip expected. Not even that all too familiar screen prompt that guilts us all into that 20% pay supplement businesses have passed on directly to us consumers.
Posting a clip to my family elicited an “OMG that’s terrifying!”, “It will be a long time before I am willing,” and, channeling Randy Jackson, “That’s going to be a no from me, dawg.” Pew Research found that they reflect the 62% of the population that would probably or definitely not take a ride. If history is any guide, that will change. Don’t we get onto a plane without seeing the pilot, who often leaves the plane to an autopilot while we sleep, read, or eat?
Robotaxis are here. There were multiple times during our short trip that we found ourselves behind another Waymo, and even three of us waiting patiently at a light with no human drivers nearby. Soon, this will be the norm rather than the exception, at least in some cities. Accidents have and will happen, but Mario Herger reports that Waymo’s seven million miles realized an 85% drop in injuries and 57% drop in police-reported accidents per mile. This begs the question of whether the public will accept any accidents. We understand technical failures but have little tolerance for injuries caused by a machine. There is also a high incentive for displaced workers to rail against automation, who will work to make sure that failures are well publicized and that lawsuits are filed, with merit or not. Indeed, who to hold responsible will be a legal conundrum—the car, the programmer, the company, or the regulators—and how much will be paid out to settle claims. The saying to keep in mind is that, like all artificial intelligence technologies today, “it is now the worst it will ever be.” Every misstep, every accident, every scenario in which a questionable response was taken is fed back into its learning algorithms. The next software update will make all those vehicles forever better, not just one driver who learns from experience.
Societally, we need to prepare ourselves for yet another large set of workers facing replacement by automation. This is a big one. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that 393,400 people drove taxis, including ride-shares, in 2023. Likely we will see this number plateau and begin to shrink. At first, just a slight amount, but as we have seen in so many disrupted jobs, it will become exponential as rollouts continue to take hold. If we project the same autonomous vehicles extend to delivery trucks and big rigs, we can add 3.7 million jobs in the US (from 2023 BLS). We need to prepare for perhaps the greatest displacement of workers ever seen in our country in a compressed time frame as corporations realize the cost saving and liability reduction opportunity. Tesla and Uber have both made big announcements for this future. Let’s not be complacent about ensuring that there are jobs for these workers, or be ill-prepared to consider policies like government assistance or guaranteed basic income as we transition to an automated future.
We can’t and shouldn’t stop technology from improving our lives. Robotaxis will get us from place to place more safely than human drivers. Parents can feel less anxious if their teenager is driven home by one. Efficiency can be centrally optimized, solving the circling of Uber and Lyft drivers hoping to catch the next customer, while attempting to maximize their hard-earned pay. Fewer pedestrians and bicyclists will be hurt in traffic accidents, and there will be less congestion, less emissions, and less frustrations.
So when you get the chance to experience it, take it! But expect to be underwhelmed. It’ll just take you to where you want to go. Remarkably unremarkable.
